Weekly Forecast

The staple product of Arkansas Weather Report has long been a 7-Day forecast published once a week (usually on Sunday). This forecast is hand-made by meteorologist David Harrison and includes a detailed Forecast Discussion as seen below.

Forecast Discussion

Last Updated 03-29-26

A change in the weather pattern will bring much-needed rain chances back into the forecast this week. After a warm and dry start to the period, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop on Wednesday and continue off and on through the weekend. Much of the state could see up to 3 inches of accumulated rainfall over the next seven days, with locally higher amounts possible in the stronger storms. The potential for organized severe weather appears to be low this week, but there could still be a few strong storms during the afternoon hours each day. Stay weather aware!

Broad ridging will be in place over the Gulf to start the period, with quasi-zonal flow positioned over Arkansas on Monday. High pressure at the surface will keep skies mostly clear, and temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s across most of the state. This pattern will continue into Tuesday, though strong moisture advection will likely lead to increasing cloud cover during the afternoon hours. We will start to see a shift in the broader pattern late Tuesday night as an upper-level shortwave trough develops over the southern Plains and lifts across Arkansas on Wednesday and Thursday. This system will trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region, with multiple waves of rain possible from Tuesday night through Thursday. Instability and wind shear will be quite limited with this system, and this should preclude more organized severe weather potential. Nevertheless, a few storms may be strong and produce gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

A few scattered showers may persist into Friday, but most of Arkansas should see a lull in the rainfall as upper-level ridging briefly builds over the area. Temperatures will rebound into the low 80s, and strong southerly flow will continue to pump Gulf moisture into the region. Another upper-level trough and associated front are expected to swing across the central CONUS late Friday before tracking across Arkansas on Saturday. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are again forecast to develop along and ahead of this system, with rain chances persisting into Sunday morning. Instability will be a bit better with this system, and we will need to monitor for more organized severe weather potential during the afternoon and evening hours. The system will slowly move off to our east on Sunday, but a developing mid-level jet may trigger additional showers and thunderstorms into early next week. Overall, this pattern looks to bring significant rainfall to Arkansas this week, with much of the state forecast to see up to 3 inches of accumulated precipitation by the end of the period. Locally higher amounts may be possible if the heavier storms train over a particular area, and localized flash flooding may be a concern. Stay weather aware!

Acknowledgements: This forecast was produced using surface and upper-air observations, radar and satellite observations, and numerical weather prediction models provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service.